Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Economist, the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and WBHumanoid ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?

Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (Montreal Gazette, Dept. of State, History.com). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population (EconomistDaily Sabah, Politico, Olympic.org).

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NOTE 24 May 2021: The question asks about an announcement by the United States Olympic Committee. Whether the US sends persons other than athletes (e.g., political dignitaries) is immaterial.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 523
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 1530
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.004
5.
-0.004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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