Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC   •   Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?

Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China (Guardian, Toronto Star, CBC, South China Morning Post).

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Name Probability
Yes, only Michael Kovrig 0%
Yes, only Michael Spavor 0%
Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor 11%
No 89%

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