Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach (Yahoo News, Reuters, Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

211

Forecast
Count

564

Crowd Brier Score

0.0068


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014
2.
-0.014
4.
-0.014
5.
-0.014

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