The Economist and Adam Grant ask:

How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?

Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen (Economist, The Hill, FOXNews). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ( The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.

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The question closed "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 8,000,000 0%
Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive 18%
More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000 71%
Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive 11%
More than 14,000,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 276
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 796
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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