Started Mar 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?

The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for "All items" in September 2021 (BLS). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.

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The question closed "Higher than 3.1%" with a closing date of 1 October 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 1.7% 0%
Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7% 0%
Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 3.1% 100%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 170
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 639
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.298
2.
-0.293
3.
-0.267
4.
-0.245
5.
-0.244

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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