Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:
What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?
The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for "All items" in September 2021 (BLS). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.
The question closed "Higher than 3.1%" with a closing date of 1 October 2021.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Lower than 1.7%||0%|
|Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive||0%|
|Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%||0%|
|Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive||0%|
|Higher than 3.1%||100%|
|Number of Forecasters||170|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 258|
|Number of Forecasts||639|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 686|
|Accuracy of participants|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||about average|