Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

China is looking to advance the internationalization of the renminbi (Reuters, Bloomberg). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for December 2021 reported by SWIFT in its RMB Tracker monthly report when first released, expected in January 2022 (SWIFT). The relevant data can be found in the report's graph titled "RMB's share as a global payments currency." In its March 2021 report, SWIFT reported the RMB's February 2021 share as a global payments currency at 2.20% (SWIFT - March 2021 Report).

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The question closed "More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.00% 10%
Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive 88%
More than 2.50% but less than 3.00% 2%
3.00% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 467
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.424
2.
-0.422
3.
-0.388
4.
-0.366
5.
-0.321

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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