The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, begun early in the pandemic, is expected to taper down eventually (Market Watch, Economic Times). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was increasing its "holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month" (Federal Reserve - April 2021 Statement). The date a reduction would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations are immaterial (NY Fed).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 3 May 2021: The question is concerned with the total of $120 billion per month, irrespective of the specific levels of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities being purchased.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 November 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.