Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC

ericbays asks:

Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?

The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, begun early in the pandemic, is expected to taper down eventually (Market Watch, Economic Times). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was increasing its "holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month" (Federal Reserve - April 2021 Statement). The date a reduction would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations are immaterial (NY Fed).

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NOTE 3 May 2021: The question is concerned with the total of $120 billion per month, irrespective of the specific levels of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities being purchased.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 November 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 97.00%
No 3.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 93
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 505
Average for questions older than 6 months: 682
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.448
2.
-0.431
3.
-0.424
5.
-0.39

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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