Started Jul 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ?

Skyrocketing housing prices in New Zealand are raising concerns about an asset bubble (Guardian, Newshub). The outcome will be determined using the national monthly median house price data for December 2021 as first reported by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), expected in mid-January 2022 (REINZ). Revisions to the data later would be immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 95.00%
No 5.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 59
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 298
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username