Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government?
As the scheduled date of the withdrawal of most US troops from Afghanistan nears and Afghan Taliban forces advance, negotiations between the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban continue (AP, Federation of American Scientists, Economist, NPR). Examples of what would count as provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government would include, but not be limited to, a transitional political process to form a new government and recognition of an existing government. A ceasefire agreement alone would not count.