Private Superforecasting Workshop and Tylerdurden03 ask:

Between 4 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will a country formally progress in the NATO accession process?

Started Feb 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 29, 2022 10:02PM UTC

Amid high tensions with Ukraine and the West, Vladimir Putin has demanded that NATO freeze its expansion further into Eastern Europe (NPR, IntelliNews, Council on Foreign Relations). For the purposes of this question, formal progression in the NATO accession process consists of a country 1) reaching a new stage of any of the seven stages listed under the accession process section (NATO - Enlargement), 2) receiving an invitation to participate in a Membership Action Plan (NATO - Membership Action Plan), or 3) entering into “Intensified Dialogue” (NATO - Enlargement, see "Aspirant countries").

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 29 June 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 284
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 840
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username