Started Sep 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in 2023?

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (US Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for "Housing Units Started." In the file, find the "StartsUA" sheet. The total number of starts in 2021 was 1,601.1 thousand, or 1,601,100.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 1.30 million 16.62% -0.38% -1.07% -5.38%
Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive 40.85% -0.15% +0.77% +5.85%
More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million 24.46% +0.46% +0.08% -2.54%
Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive 8.08% +0.08% +0.08% -5.92%
More than 1.75 million 10.00% +0.00% +0.15% +8.00%

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