Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in 2023?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (US Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for "Housing Units Started." In the file, find the "StartsUA" sheet. The total number of starts in 2021 was 1,601.1 thousand, or 1,601,100.
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The question closed "Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 1.30 million | 2% | |
| Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive | 85% | |
| More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million | 6% | |
| Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive | 6% | |
| More than 1.75 million | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 49 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 320 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
