Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in 2023?

Started Sep 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (US Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for "Housing Units Started." In the file, find the "StartsUA" sheet. The total number of starts in 2021 was 1,601.1 thousand, or 1,601,100.

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The question closed "Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1.30 million 2%
Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive 85%
More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million 6%
Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive 6%
More than 1.75 million 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 320
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.10259
2.
-0.07211
3.
-0.070252
4.
-0.056665
5.
-0.048817

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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