Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the Bank of Canada's policy interest rate target exceed 4.75% before 8 June 2023?

Started Dec 09, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 07, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The Bank of Canada, the country's central bank, sets a target interest rate for overnight lending to banks that influences interest rates, including the prime rate, throughout the Canadian economy (Investopedia, Bank of Canada). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Bank of Canada (Bank of Canada - Policy Interest Rate). At its 7 December 2022 meeting, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate target to 4.25% (Bank of Canada - 7 December 2022 Release, CBC). The question will close on the date of the announcement, rather than the date on which an increase would take effect.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 June 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 8.19%
No 91.81%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 182
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.100869
2.
-0.095061
3.
-0.094462
4.
-0.084952
5.
-0.079408

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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