Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be total value of US/China trade in goods (exports plus imports) in the first quarter of (Q1) 2024 as compared to the Q1 2023?

Started Feb 17, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Despite growing tensions, trade between the US and China hit a new record in 2022 (BBCCNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data for Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 as of the first release of March 2024 data in the "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services" report, expected in March 2024 (Census Bureau - FT900: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, Historical Releases, Census Bureau - Schedule of Foreign Trade Releases). As of the launch of this question, the Census Bureau reported a total of $13,789.6 (millions of dollars) in goods exported from the US to China, and a total of $37,302.2 (millions of dollars, "Customs basis") in goods imported from China to the US, for a total of $51,092 (millions of dollars) (Census Bureau - December 2022 International Trade Release, see Exhibit 4 on page 56 of 65 in the PDF). Monthly historical data may be downloaded by clicking here: https://goodjudgment.io/docs/US_PRC_Monthly_Trade_2015_-_2022_17_February_2023.xlsx (note that the data in this file will not be revised).

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The question closed "Between down by 5.0% and up 5.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down by 15.0% or more 1%
Down by more than 5.0% but less than 15.0% 35%
Between down by 5.0% and up 5.0%, inclusive 49%
Up by more than 5.0% but less than 15.0% 11%
Up by 15.0% or more 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 155
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.120098
2.
-0.100245
3.
-0.083355
5.
-0.052538

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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