Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will all seven states that share the Colorado River Basin sign a proposal to the Bureau of Reclamation agreeing on Colorado River water usage cuts before 1 August 2023?

Started Feb 17, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

On 31 January 2023, six of the seven states (California didn't participate) that share the Colorado River Basin submitted a proposal to cut back on water usage from the river to help ensure that minimum levels in reservoirs on the river are maintained (UPI, NPR - Northern Colorado, Southern Nevada Water Authority). California offered its own proposal, but there is no consensus among the seven states (AP, The Hill).

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NOTE 20 February 2023: All seven states must sign the same proposal for it to count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.86%
No 95.14%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 72
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 253
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.024512
2.
-0.020845
3.
-0.020845
5.
-0.01999

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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