Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will all seven states that share the Colorado River Basin sign a proposal to the Bureau of Reclamation agreeing on Colorado River water usage cuts before 1 August 2023?

Started Feb 17, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

On 31 January 2023, six of the seven states (California didn't participate) that share the Colorado River Basin submitted a proposal to cut back on water usage from the river to help ensure that minimum levels in reservoirs on the river are maintained (UPI, NPR - Northern Colorado, Southern Nevada Water Authority). California offered its own proposal, but there is no consensus among the seven states (AP, The Hill).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 20 February 2023: All seven states must sign the same proposal for it to count.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.86%
No 95.14%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 72
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 253
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username