Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

As of 1 January 2024, how many US states will have banned by law natural gas appliances in all new residential construction?

Started May 16, 2023 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

In May 2023, the state of New York became the first state to ban "fossil-fuel equipment" in some new buildings starting in 2026 and others in 2029 (USA Today, CNN, NY State Assembly - A03006C, see "Part RR"). The date the bans would take effect would be immaterial, and bans with limited exceptions (e.g., for buildings without access to an electrical grid) would count. Bans imposed by political subdivisions of states (e.g., cities, counties) would be immaterial (Building Decarbonization Coalition). A ban would have to include single and multifamily occupancy buildings, and if a state imposed then repealed a ban as of 1 January 2024, the repealed ban would not count (Tech 24 Construction).

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The question closed "1" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 13%
1 78%
2 9%
3 0%
4 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 168
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.267
2.
-0.254
3.
-0.19
4.
-0.136
5.
-0.135

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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