Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

In the IEA's total hydrogen demand estimates for 2030, will the percentage difference between its Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) be less in the 2023 WEO report compared to the 2022 WEO report?

Started May 16, 2023 02:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes and updates various data estimating, among other things, total hydrogen demand in the future in its World Energy Outlook (WEO) report (IEA WEO). The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) shows the trajectory implied by today's policy settings, and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes that all aspirational targets announced by governments are met on time and in full, including their long‐term net zero and energy access goals (WEO 2022, see page 20). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and outcome determined using 2023 WEO total hydrogen demand data for both STEPS and APS in 2030, expected sometime in October 2023 (WEO 2023). The figure for STEPS will be divided by the figure for APS. In the 2022 WEO, total hydrogen demand in 2030 for STEPS was 13,438 petajoules and for APS was 15,064 petajoules, meaning that STEPS was 89.20605% of APS, or lower by 10.79395% (WEO 2022, see Table A.26 on page 460). The data may also be downloaded in an XLSX file (WEO 2022 - Free Dataset, download "Tables for scenario projections (Annex A)" and navigate to the "Hydrogen demand (PJ) sheet). If the percentage difference in the data for 2030 in the 2023 WEO is less than 10.79395%, then the question will close "Yes."

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 26.54%
No 73.46%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 91
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.641
2.
-0.471
3.
-0.444
4.
-0.402
5.
-0.346

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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