Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for July 2023 be greater than 3.6%?

Started Jul 18, 2023 10:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 04, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While new jobs came in lighter than expected among economists in June 2023, the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6% (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 3 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected in August 2023 (BLS).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 4 August 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 24%
No 76%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 132
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username