Yuhan asks:

What will be the total value of trade between Australia and China in the first four months of 2024?

Started Nov 29, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As relations between Australia and China have thawed in recent years, trade has increased between the two countries (US News & World Report, Yahoo, Prime Minister of Australia). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2024 and outcome determined using data as reported by China's General Administration of Customs when data for April 2024 are first available (Stats.customs.gov.cn). On the site, 1) set "Flow" to "Import and Export," 2) set "Currency" to "US dollar," 3) set "Period" for the appropriate date ranges, 4) check the "By month" box, 5) set the first "Select" row to "Select partner," 6) enter "601" into the field to the immediate right of "Select partner," and 7) click "Enquiry." Click "Confirm" in the notification box that comes up, then complete the captcha puzzle. For historical data current as of the launch of this question, download: https://goodjudgment.io/docs/Australia_China_Trade_Data_2018-2023YTD_28_November_2023.xlsx. As of the launch of this question, China's General Administration of Customs reported the total value of trade between Australia and China in the first four months of 2023 to be $77.865 billion.

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The question closed "More than $68 billion but less than $74 billion" with a closing date of 1 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $62 billion 7%
Between $62 billion and $68 billion, inclusive 0%
More than $68 billion but less than $74 billion 38%
Between $74 billion and $80 billion, inclusive 53%
More than $80 billion but less than $86 billion 2%
Between $86 billion and $92 billion, inclusive 0%
More than $92 billion 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 37
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.293967
2.
-0.288364
3.
-0.227017
4.
-0.136755
5.
-0.113353

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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