Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many total vessels will transit through the Suez Canal in the first calendar quarter of 2024?

Started Dec 22, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Various shipping firms have begun diverting traffic away from the Red Sea and bypassing the Suez Canal as Iranian-backed Houthi forces launch attacks against commercial vessels off the coast of Yemen (CNBC, MSN, Newsweek). In October 2023, the Suez Canal Authority announced increases in transit dues (i.e., tolls) for using the Suez Canal that are to take effect 15 January 2024 (Suez Canal Authority). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using fiscal year (FY) Q3 2023/2024 data (FY Q3 2023/2024 is the same as the first calendar quarter of 2024) as reported by the Central Bank of Egypt in its monthly statistical bulletin once FY Q3 2023/2024 are first reported, expected in April 2024 (Central Bank of Egypt). In its September 2023 Monthly Statistical Bulletin, the Central Bank of Egypt reported a total of 6,523 transits through the Suez Canal (Central Bank of Egypt - Monthly Statistical Bulletin September 2023, see "31/1 -Traffic in the Suez Canal" at the bottom of page 54 of 93 of the PDF; see "Number" under "Total" for "Q1" under 2023/2024, inforMARE). You may download consolidated historical data here: https://goodjudgment.io/docs/Suez_Canal_Total_Transits_Calendar_Q4_2018_-_Q3_2023_19_December_2023.xlsx.

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This question has ended, but is awaiting resolution by an admin.

Possible Answer Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 4,400 100%
Between 4,400 and 5,000, inclusive 0%
More than 5,000 but fewer than 5,600 0%
Between 5,600 and 6,200, inclusive 0%
More than 6,200 but fewer than 6,800 0%
Between 6,800 and 7,400, inclusive 0%
More than 7,400 0%
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