cosaib asks:

Will Ariel Henry cease to be recognized by the US as the sole acting president and prime minister of Haiti before 18 April 2024?

Started Mar 07, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 13, 2024 02:00AM UTC

Violence in the impoverished country as steadily risen amid delayed elections and political paralysis, with growing calls for Acting President and Prime Minister Ariel Henry to act one way or another (AP, Al Jazeera, CBS News, Yahoo). The question would close "Yes" on Henry's outright resignation, the US recognizing a different person or persons as the heads of state and government, or other outcome where Henri is no longer the president (acting or otherwise), prime minister, head of state, or head of government in a singular capacity as recognized by the US.

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Because the "Conseil Présidential de Transition" (CPT, or Transitional Presidential Council (TPC)) was form by the decree published in Le Moniteur on Friday 12 April 2024, which states, in part, "The Transitional Presidential Council exercises specific presidential powers from the presidency during the transition period until the inauguration of the elected President which must take place, at the latest, February 7, 2026. (translated)," and the US has recognized the CPT/TPC's creation, Ariel Henri, while still prime minister, is no longer acting as president in a singular capacity. Therefore, the question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 12 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 45%
No 55%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 31
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 145
Number of Forecasts 110
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 326
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.056819
2.
-0.047931
3.
-0.011692
4.
-0.007331
5.
-0.007331

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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