Gonzalo-bilbao-la-vieja asks:

How many US dollars will be deposited in private bank accounts in Argentina as of 30 December 2024?

Started Oct 11, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 30, 2024 08:01AM UTC

President Javier Milei has pushed for a "dollarization" of the Argentine economy, including a push to encourage greater private deposits of US dollars in its banking system (Yahoo [Bloomberg]). The question will be suspended on 29 December 2024 and the outcome determined using 30 December 2024 data as first reported by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA). Click "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/Pdfs/PublicacionesEstadisticas/dep2024.xls" to download an xls file with the data. In the file, find the sheet named "Sector_privado." The pertinent data are under "DEPOSITS AND LIABILITIES OF AND WITH THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN FOREIGN CURRENCY, daily series (1), balances in millions of u$s," specifically "Total" under "Of cash" under "Deposits" (which is Column CW as of the launch of this question). As of 10 October 2024, the total amount of foreign currency balances in US dollars on 19 September 2024 was reported as $23,730 million, or $23.730 billion. A static version of the file downloaded with the pertinent data highlighted in green may be downloaded by clicking here: https://goodjudgment.io/docs/BCRA_dep2024_Macro-enabled_File_Downloaded_8_October_2024.xlsm.

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The question closed "At least $30 billion, but less than $35 billion" with a closing date of 31 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $25 billion 1%
At least $25 billion, but less than $30 billion 14%
At least $30 billion, but less than $35 billion 81%
At least $35 billion, but less than $40 billion 2%
At least $40 billion, but less than $45 billion 1%
At least $45 billion, but less than $50 billion 1%
At least $50 billion, but less than $55 billion 1%
At least $55 billion, but less than $65 billion 1%
$65 billion or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 15
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 155
Number of Forecasts 90
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 412
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.036172
2.
-0.032979
3.
-0.030828
4.
-0.023582
5.
-0.016276

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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