Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Started Nov 15, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 20, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The change in US administrations has renewed focus on potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine (BBC, Politico, Caspian News). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 20 July 2025" with a closing date of 20 July 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 20 January 2025 1%
Between 20 January 2025 and 19 April 2025 1%
Between 20 April 2025 and 19 July 2025 4%
Not before 20 July 2025 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 182
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 869
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.057544
2.
-0.057544
3.
-0.057544
4.
-0.055891
5.
-0.053867

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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