erikbays asks:

What will happen next in 2025 with regard to the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Less Food and Energy (aka "Core")?

Started Feb 21, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

While the US inflation rate has come down from its peak in 2022, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target (CNBC, UPI, Investopedia - Core Inflation). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using 12-month percentage change data as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All Items Less Food and Energy" as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago," and hover your cursor over the chart for data). The data for a month as first reported will count, and subsequent revisions to past months are immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the Core CPI for December 2024 was 3.21361%.

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The question closed "Neither will occur for a month in 2025" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The annual percentage change in Core CPI will be reported as 2.5000% or lower 5%
The annual percentage change in Core CPI will be reported as 4.1000% or higher 1%
Neither will occur for a month in 2025 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 262
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.240847
2.
-0.238719
3.
-0.170282
4.
-0.168969
5.
-0.136737

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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