Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will the US and China next sign or announce any agreement pertaining to tariffs on trade or export controls?
Closed Jun 12, 2025 06:18AM UTC
While the Trump administration has taken an aggressive stance on trade with much of the world, the greatest focus has been China (Yahoo [Reuters], BBC). The signing of any agreement will count, as would the issuing of a joint statement like the one released by the US and China on 12 May 2025 (White House). The agreement must be publicly acknowledged by both the US and China to count.
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The question closed "Before 25 July 2025" with a closing date of 11 June 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 25 July 2025 | 51% | |
| Between 25 July 2025 and 18 September 2025 | 35% | |
| Between 19 September 2025 and 13 November 2025 | 11% | |
| Not before 14 November 2025 | 3% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 25 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 120 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 62 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 277 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
