On 4 August 2025, will the total "reciprocal" tariff rate in effect on goods imported from South Korea to the US be 25% or higher?

Started Jul 11, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 04, 2025 07:01AM UTC

President Trump announced on 7 July 2025 that he was extending his deadline for new trade deals to be made with several US trading partners to 1 August 2025, after which South Korea would face a "reciprocal" tariff rate of 25% (CBS News, Chosun Daily, White House - Executive Order 14316). The question will be suspended on 3 August 2025 and the outcome determined using available information from the US government. If different total "reciprocal" tariff rates are in effect on 4 August 2025, the rate in effect for the majority of the day (Eastern Time) will count for resolution, provided, however, that the retroactive lowering or removal of a "reciprocal" tariff rate for 4 August 2025 announced on 4 August 2025 will count for that date. Changes merely exempting specific classes of goods from the "reciprocal" tariff rate are immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 13
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 30
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile.

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.1728
2.
-0.13125
3.
-0.0303
5.
-0.001458

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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