On 4 August 2025, will the total "reciprocal" tariff rate in effect on goods imported from Thailand to the US be 36% or higher?
Closed Aug 04, 2025 07:01AM UTC
President Trump announced on 7 July 2025 that he was extending his deadline for new trade deals to be made with several US trading partners to 1 August 2025, after which Thailand would face a "reciprocal" tariff rate of 36% (CNBC, Truth Social - realDonaldTrump, White House - Executive Order 14316). The question will be suspended on 3 August 2025 and the outcome determined using available information from the US government. If different total "reciprocal" tariff rates are in effect on 4 August 2025, the rate in effect for the majority of the day (Eastern Time) will count for resolution, provided, however, that the retroactive lowering or removal of a "reciprocal" tariff rate for 4 August 2025 announced on 4 August 2025 will count for that date. Changes merely exempting specific classes of goods from the "reciprocal" tariff rate are immaterial.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | |
| No | 95% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 10 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 21 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile. |