On 4 August 2025, will the total general tariff rate in effect on goods imported from Brazil to the US be 50% or higher?
Closed Aug 04, 2025 07:01AM UTC
President Trump sent a letter dated 9 July 2025 to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva indicating that, for various reasons, the US would impose "a tariff of 50% on any and all Brazilian products sent to the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs" (Truth Social - realDonaldTrump, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 3 August 2025 and the outcome determined using available information from the US government. If different total general tariff rates are in effect on 4 August 2025, the rate in effect for the majority of the day (Eastern Time) will count for resolution, provided, however, that the retroactive lowering or removal of a general tariff rate for 4 August 2025 announced on 4 August 2025 will count for that date. Tariffs imposed on "transshippments" are immaterial (TecEx). Exemptions of specific classes of goods from a new general tariff rate are immaterial.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | |
| No | 73% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 17 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 31 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |