On 4 August 2025, will the total general tariff rate in effect on goods imported from Brazil to the US be 50% or higher?

Started Jul 11, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 04, 2025 07:01AM UTC

President Trump sent a letter dated 9 July 2025 to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva indicating that, for various reasons, the US would impose "a tariff of 50% on any and all Brazilian products sent to the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs" (Truth Social - realDonaldTrump, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 3 August 2025 and the outcome determined using available information from the US government. If different total general tariff rates are in effect on 4 August 2025, the rate in effect for the majority of the day (Eastern Time) will count for resolution, provided, however, that the retroactive lowering or removal of a general tariff rate for 4 August 2025 announced on 4 August 2025 will count for that date. Tariffs imposed on "transshippments" are immaterial (TecEx). Exemptions of specific classes of goods from a new general tariff rate are immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 28%
No 73%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 31
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.637917
2.
-0.617917
3.
-0.517083
4.
-0.435383
5.
-0.192083

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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