sai_39 asks:

When will the US publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike against a ground target within the territory of Venezuela?

Started Sep 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 03, 2026 09:21AM UTC

Tensions between the US and Venezuela rose after the US reportedly blew up a drug smuggling vessel operated by a Venezuelan gang and a Venezuelan fighter aircraft flew near a US naval vessel in international waters (CBS News, USA Today). Both the strike and acknowledgment must occur during the question's open period to count and will close upon the acknowledgment. Targets in territorial waters will not count, and "the territory of Venezuela" refers to the internationally recognized territory of Venezuela. Accidents, such as stray ordnance falling onto Venezuelan territory, will not count. Actions not executed by the US military will not count (e.g., CIA operations). A public acknowledgment that a strike has taken place is required, but whether that strike has been executed by the US military will be determined using both the public acknowledgment and credible, open-source reporting.

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The question closed "Between 8 December 2025 and 8 March 2026" with a closing date of 3 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 8 December 2025 1%
Between 8 December 2025 and 8 March 2026 60%
Between 9 March 2026 and 7 June 2026 14%
Not before 8 June 2026 25%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 93
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134
Number of Forecasts 355
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.491422
2.
-0.39024
3.
-0.345778
4.
-0.274718
5.
-0.233522

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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