What will be the US federal budget deficit in FY2026 (1 October 2025 to 30 September 2026)?
Closing Oct 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
The US government has been operating with trillion-dollar deficits for years, which has major financial and economic implications for the country and the world (Yahoo [Reuters], Congressional Budget Office). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2026 and the outcome determined using the Monthly Treasury Statement covering through 30 September 2026 as published by the Department of the Treasury (Department of the Treasury - Monthly Treasury Statements). For FY2025, the US federal budget deficit was reported as $1,775,357 million, or $1.775357 trillion (Department of the Treasury, see Table 1 on page 5).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $1.0 trillion | 0.40% | 0% | 0% | -0.60% |
| At least $1.0 trillion, but less than $1.2 trillion | 1.00% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least $1.2 trillion, but less than $1.4 trillion | 2.10% | 0% | 0% | +0.10% |
| At least $1.4 trillion, but less than $1.6 trillion | 8.30% | 0% | 0% | +2.30% |
| At least $1.6 trillion, but less than $1.8 trillion | 26.00% | 0% | 0% | +6.00% |
| At least $1.8 trillion, but less than $2.0 trillion | 46.90% | 0% | 0% | +0.90% |
| At least $2.0 trillion, but less than $2.2 trillion | 11.90% | 0% | 0% | -7.10% |
| At least $2.2 trillion, but less than $2.4 trillion | 2.10% | 0% | 0% | -0.90% |
| At least $2.4 trillion, but less than $2.6 trillion | 0.60% | 0% | 0% | -0.40% |
| At least $2.6 trillion, but less than $2.8 trillion | 0.40% | 0% | 0% | -0.60% |
| More than $2.8 trillion | 0.30% | 0% | 0% | +0.30% |