What will happen next with regard to the closing yield for US 10-year Treasury securities?
Started
Oct 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Closing May 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury (aka bond) is a major benchmark for finance in the US, and concerns about inflation are weighing on markets (Investopedia, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2026 if still open and the outcome determined using market yield data on 10-year Treasury securities as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 23 October 2025 was 4.01%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The yield will be reported as 3.65% or lower | 18.30% | 0% | +0.50% | +2.50% |
| The yield will be reported as 4.45% or higher | 17.10% | -1.00% | -2.00% | +2.20% |
| Neither will occur before 2 May 2026 | 64.60% | +1.00% | +1.50% | -4.70% |