When will the closing yield on French 10-year bonds reach or exceed 4.00%?
Started
Oct 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 02, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Closing Oct 02, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Political turmoil in France has led to a series of credit rating downgrades and the potential for rising borrowing costs for the French government (France 24, Yahoo [Bloomberg]). The question will be suspended on 1 October 2026 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). On 1 October 2025, the closing yield was 3.5279%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 24 January 2026 | 5.20% | 0% | 0% | +1.64% |
| Between 24 January 2026 and 17 April 2026 | 15.30% | 0% | 0% | +0.97% |
| Between 18 April 2026 and 10 July 2026 | 4.30% | 0% | 0% | +2.30% |
| Between 11 July 2026 and 2 October 2026 | 9.70% | 0% | 0% | +1.70% |
| Not before 3 October 2026 | 65.50% | 0% | 0% | -6.61% |