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David Epstein and Foxes ask:

Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close before 1 January 2023? 

21%

Chance
83 Forecasters • 151 Forecasts
Started Jun 03, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
David Epstein asks:

Will Finland and/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 January 2023?

145 Forecasters • 236 Forecasts
Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, Finland only
2%
Yes, Sweden only
1%
Yes, both Finland and Sweden
59%
No
38%
David Epstein and belikewater ask:

As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?

64 Forecasters • 318 Forecasts
Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 1,000
0%
Between 1,000 and 5,000, inclusive
0%
More than 5,000 but fewer than 25,000
71%
Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive
27%
More than 100,000 but fewer than 250,000
2%
250,000 or more
0%
David Epstein asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022?

2%

Chance
54 Forecasters • 163 Forecasts
Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 20, 2022 07:01AM UTC
David Epstein asks:

How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?

49 Forecasters • 154 Forecasts
Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 13.0 million
5%
Between 13.0 million and 13.6 million, inclusive
35%
More than 13.6 million but fewer than 14.2 million
48%
Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive
12%
More than 14.8 million but fewer than 15.4 million
0%
Between 15.4 million and 16.0 million, inclusive
0%
More than 16.0 million
0%
David Epstein asks:

Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?

64%

Chance
99 Forecasters • 327 Forecasts
Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
David Epstein asks:

What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?

96 Forecasters • 264 Forecasts
Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 19, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 3.000
0%
Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive
0%
More than 3.400 but less than 3.800
1%
Between 3.800 and 4.200, inclusive
29%
More than 4.200 but less than 4.600
41%
Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive
22%
More than 5.000
7%
David Epstein asks:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2022?

74 Forecasters • 343 Forecasts
Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 3.0%
0%
Between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive
0%
Higher than 4.5% but lower than 6.0%
45%
Between 6.0% and 7.5%, inclusive
50%
Higher than 7.5% but lower than 9.0%
5%
9.0% or higher
0%
David Epstein asks:

As of 15 July 2022, how many refugees will have fled Ukraine since 24 February 2022, according to UNHCR?

102 Forecasters • 475 Forecasts
Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 6.4 million
0%
Between 6.4 million and 7.6 million, inclusive
0%
More than 7.6 million but fewer than 8.8 million
66%
Between 8.8 million and 10.0 million
34%
More than 10.0 million but fewer than 11.2 million
0%
Between 11.2 million and 12.4 million, inclusive
0%
More than 12.4 million
0%
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