Columbus asks:
Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States (Harvard Environmental & Energy Law Program, The Hill, European Parliament). For the purposes of this question, a carbon pricing mechanism would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system (World Bank). Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System (European Commission), the California Cap-and-Trade Program (California Air Resources Board), and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 93 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 257 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |