Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Columbus asks:

Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?

President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States (Harvard Environmental & Energy Law Program, The Hill, European Parliament). For the purposes of this question, a carbon pricing mechanism would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system (World Bank). Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System (European Commission), the California Cap-and-Trade Program (California Air Resources Board), and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 93
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 257
Average for questions older than 6 months: 682
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0
4.
-0.0
5.
-0.0

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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