Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?

The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) PCE Price Index data as first reported in its monthly Personal Income and Outlays reports (Reports) (BEA - Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index). Subsequent revisions to data for previously-reported months in 2022 would be immaterial. In the Report for June 2022, the percentage change from June 2021 to June 2022 was 6.8% (BEA - Personal Income and Outlays June 2022, see Table 11, Line 1).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 10.00% +0.00% -3.50%
No 90.00% -0.00% +3.50%

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