Started Oct 07, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 31, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing yield for the UK 10-year gilt (bond) on 31 March 2023?

Like Treasury bonds in the US, UK gilts are government bonds issued for different lengths of time (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC, set chart to "3M"). The closing yield for the UK 10-year gilt on 30 September 2022 was 4.0830%.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 3.000% 14.40% -1.40% +0.90% +1.20%
Between 3.000% and 4.000%, inclusive 77.70% +1.40% +0.00% +7.40%
More than 4.000% but less than 5.000% 7.60% +0.00% -0.90% -6.10%
Between 5.000% and 6.000%, inclusive 0.30% +0.00% +0.00% -1.30%
More than 6.000% but less than 7.000% 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% -0.70%
7.000% or more 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% -0.50%

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