Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the closing yield for the UK 10-year gilt (bond) on 31 March 2023?
Closed Mar 31, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Like Treasury bonds in the US, UK gilts are government bonds issued for different lengths of time (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC, set chart to "3M"). The closing yield for the UK 10-year gilt on 30 September 2022 was 4.0830%.
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The question closed "Between 3.000% and 4.000%, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 March 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.000% | 3% | |
| Between 3.000% and 4.000%, inclusive | 96% | |
| More than 4.000% but less than 5.000% | 1% | |
| Between 5.000% and 6.000%, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 6.000% but less than 7.000% | 0% | |
| 7.000% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 34 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 220 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
