What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?

Started Oct 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (US News & World Report, CNN). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2023 (FRED).

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The question closed "Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by more than 3.0% 0%
Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive 2%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5% 10%
Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive 50%
Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0% 34%
Higher by 3.0% or more 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 92
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 294
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.086319
2.
-0.08382
3.
-0.065542
4.
-0.061938
5.
-0.054215

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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