What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (US News & World Report, CNN). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2023 (FRED).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower by more than 3.0% | 0% | |
| Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive | 2% | |
| Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5% | 10% | |
| Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive | 50% | |
| Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0% | 34% | |
| Higher by 3.0% or more | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 92 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 294 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 637 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
