What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?

Started Feb 24, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy in 2023 (CBS News, CNBC, AP). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in October 2023 (FRED, BEA - Release Schedule).

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The question closed "Higher by 3.0% or more" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by more than 3.0% 0%
Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive 0%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5% 0%
Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive 2%
Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0% 30%
Higher by 3.0% or more 68%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 229
Average for questions older than 6 months: 606
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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