What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023?
Started
Feb 24, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy in 2023 (CBS News, CNBC, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in January 2024 (FRED, BEA - Release Schedule).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower by more than 3.0% | 0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive | 1.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5% | 3.00% | +1.00% | +1.00% | -3.00% |
| Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive | 28.00% | +1.00% | +0.00% | -3.00% |
| Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0% | 46.00% | -1.00% | -2.00% | +5.00% |
| Higher by 3.0% or more | 22.00% | -1.00% | +1.00% | +1.00% |