What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023?

Started Feb 24, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy in 2023 (CBS News, CNBC, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in January 2024 (FRED, BEA - Release Schedule).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by more than 3.0% 0%
Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive 3%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5% 3%
Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive 23%
Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0% 63%
Higher by 3.0% or more 8%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 59
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 377
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.311846
3.
-0.172678
4.
-0.171569
5.
-0.142898

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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