SE_Meyer asks:

What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Russian ruble exchange rate on 19 January 2024?

Started Jul 14, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 19, 2024 08:01AM UTC

While the ruble showed resilience in the early months of Russia's war in Ukraine, the currency has fallen considerably in mid-2023 (CNN, Newsweek, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Higher than 85.00 but lower than 100.00" with a closing date of 19 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 70.00 0%
Between 70.00 and 85.00, inclusive 3%
Higher than 85.00 but lower than 100.00 96%
Between 100.00 and 115.00, inclusive 1%
More than 115.00 but lower than 130.00 0%
130.00 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 58
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 508
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.113012
3.
-0.085514
4.
-0.084307
5.
-0.083161

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username