Steven-Johnston asks:

When will Egypt's official exchange rate for the Egyptian pound to the US dollar next reach or exceed 34.5000?

Started Oct 27, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Egypt has devalued its currency, the pound, thrice since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but has not adopted a flexible exchange rate as it agreed to with the IMF in 2022 (US News & World Report, The National). The outcome will be determined using official exchange rate data as reported by the Central Bank of Egypt (Central Bank of Egypt, see "Sell" column). Egypt's presidential election is scheduled for 10-12 December 2023, with a runoff scheduled for 8-10 January 2024 if necessary (Egyptian Streets). The dates in the answer bins will not be changed, regardless of any change in the election schedule announced by the Egyptian government.

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The question closed "Not before 1 March 2024" with a closing date of 1 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 13 December 2023 0%
Between 13 December 2023 and 10 January 2024 0%
Between 11 January 2024 and 29 February 2024 1%
Not before 1 March 2024 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 214
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.198088
2.
-0.172604
3.
-0.169408
4.
-0.155692
5.
-0.099209

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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