Before 19 April 2024, will the United States renew or extend its general license as issued on 18 October 2023 authorizing transactions related to oil or gas operations in Venezuela?

Started Nov 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 17, 2024 04:00PM UTC

On 18 October 2023, the US announced a deal with the Maduro government in Venezuela where the US would lift some sanctions in exchange for basic conditions being met for Venezuela's next presidential election (PBS, US Dept. of Treasury). General License No. 44, "Authorizing Transactions Related to Oil or Gas Sector Operations in Venezuela," is scheduled to expire after 12:01 AM EDT on 18 April 2024 (US Dept. of Treasury - Office of Foreign Assets Control). Any renewal that includes limits that did not exist when the license was issued (e.g., including a cap on the quantity involved or value of transactions) would not count. If the US either revokes or amends the license so as to limit its scope before a renewal, the question would close "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 17 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 8%
No 92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 185
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.71147
2.
-0.61632
3.
-0.453854
4.
-0.403518
5.
-0.357221

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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