Before 19 April 2024, will the United States renew or extend its general license as issued on 18 October 2023 authorizing transactions related to oil or gas operations in Venezuela?

Started Nov 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 19, 2024 07:01AM UTC

On 18 October 2023, the US announced a deal with the Maduro government in Venezuela where the US would lift some sanctions in exchange for basic conditions being met for Venezuela's next presidential election (PBS, US Dept. of Treasury). General License No. 44, "Authorizing Transactions Related to Oil or Gas Sector Operations in Venezuela," is scheduled to expire after 12:01 AM EDT on 18 April 2024 (US Dept. of Treasury - Office of Foreign Assets Control). Any renewal that includes limits that did not exist when the license was issued (e.g., including a cap on the quantity involved or value of transactions) would not count. If the US either revokes or amends the license so as to limit its scope before a renewal, the question would close "No."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 35.50% -0.36% -0.64% -11.57%
No 64.50% +0.36% +0.64% +11.57%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username