What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2024?

Started Dec 01, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Inflation is expected to be less of a factor in 2024, but interest rates and geopolitical instability are headwinds for the US economy in 2024 (Indiana University, The Conference Board, Goldman Sachs). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2024 (FRED, BEA - Release Schedule).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Lower by more than 3.0% 0.00% +0.00% -1.64% -3.00%
Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive 1.00% +0.00% -1.11% -4.00%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5% 4.00% +0.00% -2.07% -13.00%
Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive 20.00% +0.00% -0.68% -7.00%
Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0% 54.00% +0.00% +5.71% +18.00%
Higher by 3.0% or more 21.00% +0.00% -0.21% +9.00%

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