What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2024?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The US economy has remained resilient despite headwinds including interest rates and geopolitical instability (Axios). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in late July 2024 (FRED, BEA). As of the launch of this question, the real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2023 was 2.1%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Up by at least 1.5%, but less than 3.0%" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Down by more than 3.0% | 0% | |
| Down by more than 1.5% but at most 3.0% | 0% | |
| Down by more than 0.0% but at most 1.5% | 1% | |
| Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 1.5% | 16% | |
| Up by at least 1.5%, but less than 3.0% | 75% | |
| Up by 3.0% or more | 8% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 58 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 171 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 275 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 444 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
