Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

On 15 July 2025, will the total "reciprocal" tariff rate imposed on goods imported from the European Union in effect be 20% or higher?

Started May 19, 2025 03:30PM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2025 07:01AM UTC

On 2 April 2025, President Trump announced the imposition of a series of "reciprocal" tariffs on imports into the US, including 10% on all imports regardless of their country of origin (effective 5 April 2025, including the EU) along with additional various country-specific rates for imports from various US trading partners (effective 9 April 2025, including an additional 10% on the EU) (White House - Executive Order 14257, Atlantic Council, EY - Tax News). On 9 April 2025, Trump ordered a 90-day suspension of the additional various country-specific rates for all countries, except China, as negotiations continued (White House - Executive Order 14266, CNN). That suspension is scheduled to expire at "12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time" on 9 July 2025, meaning the additional various country-specific rates would again take effect unless additional action is taken. If no additional action is taken, the total "reciprocal" tariff rate on imports from the European Union will return to 20%. The question will be suspended on 14 July 2025 and the outcome determined using available information from the US government. If different total "reciprocal" tariff rates are in effect in the same calendar day, the rate in effect for the majority of the day (eastern time) will count for resolution. Changes merely exempting specific classes of goods from the "reciprocal" tariff rate are immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 32.50% -3.44% -8.25% -26.98%
No 67.50% +3.44% +8.25% +26.98%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username