Trade tensions between the US and Mexico remained high in the second half of 2025, as Mexico imposed new tariffs on other trading partners (Americas Society/Council of the Americas, Yahoo [Reuters], CBC). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2026 and the outcome determined using data for the first half of 2026 as of the first release of June 2026 data on the Census Bureau's "Trade in Goods with Mexico" page, expected in August 2026 (Census Bureau - US Trade in Goods with Mexico, Census Bureau - Schedule of Foreign Trade Releases). The change will be calculated by dividing the total value of exports and imports for the first half of 2026 by the total value of exports and imports for the first half of 2025 and subtracting one As of the launch of this question, in the first half of 2025, the total value of trade was $432,553.2 million, up from $415,203.3 million over the same time period in 2024, or 4.18%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.