Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 10, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases will be reported to the CDC as of 10 January 2022?

Fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases are increasing (Kaiser Family Foundation, News12, CNN, Colorado Public Radio, Nature). The outcome will be determined by data available on 10 January 2022 from the CDC's COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Case Investigation and Reporting; see row marked "Deaths" in the table titled "Hospitalized or fatal vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC" (CDC). As of 26 July 2021, there were 1,263 fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases reported to the CDC. Fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19 would count.

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NOTE 25 October 2021: The question is concerned with the total number of "Deaths" without any adjustment for other data reported.

This question has been voided by an administrator and is no longer active.

As the CDC has ceased to public the data necessary for resolution, this question has been voided.
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