Question 48 of 59 in In the News 2022
Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 10, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases will be reported to the CDC as of 10 January 2022?

Fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases are increasing (Kaiser Family Foundation, News12, CNN, Colorado Public Radio, Nature). The outcome will be determined by data available on 10 January 2022 from the CDC's COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Case Investigation and Reporting; see row marked "Deaths" in the table titled "Hospitalized or fatal vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC" (CDC). As of 26 July 2021, there were 1,263 fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases reported to the CDC. Fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19 would count.

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NOTE 25 October 2021: The question is concerned with the total number of "Deaths" without any adjustment for other data reported.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Fewer than 6,000 0.00% +0.00%
Between 6,000 and 12,000, inclusive 0.00% +0.00%
More than 12,000 but fewer than 18,000 59.00% +4.00%
Between 18,000 and 24,000, inclusive 41.00% -4.00%
More than 24,000 but fewer than 30,000 0.00% +0.00%
30,000 or more 0.00% +0.00%

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