Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases will be reported to the CDC as of 10 January 2022?
Fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases are increasing (Kaiser Family Foundation, News12, CNN, Colorado Public Radio, Nature). The outcome will be determined by data available on 10 January 2022 from the CDC's COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Case Investigation and Reporting; see row marked "Deaths" in the table titled "Hospitalized or fatal vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC" (CDC). As of 26 July 2021, there were 1,263 fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases reported to the CDC. Fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19 would count.
NOTE 25 October 2021: The question is concerned with the total number of "Deaths" without any adjustment for other data reported.
|Possible Answer||Crowd Forecast||Change in last 24 hours|
|Fewer than 6,000||0.00%||+0.00%|
|Between 6,000 and 12,000, inclusive||0.00%||+0.00%|
|More than 12,000 but fewer than 18,000||59.00%||+4.00%|
|Between 18,000 and 24,000, inclusive||41.00%||-4.00%|
|More than 24,000 but fewer than 30,000||0.00%||+0.00%|
|30,000 or more||0.00%||+0.00%|