Foxes ask:

When will new federal legislation enabling the executive branch to ban or prohibit TikTok from operating in the US become law?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 24, 2024 03:00PM UTC

On 5 March 2024, a bipartisan group of representatives introduced the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, legislation designed to empower the executive branch to, among other things, prohibit companies from certain countries from operating electronic applications in the US (NPR, CNN, House.gov - Select Committee on the CCP, House Select Committee on the CCP - H.R.7521 Text). The date the legislation would take effect and whether TikTok is actually banned or named outright in the legislation is immaterial.

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The question closed "Before 15 July 2024" with a closing date of 24 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 15 July 2024 79%
Between 15 July 2024 and 4 November 2024 6%
Between 5 November 2024 and 31 December 2024 3%
Not before 1 January 2025 12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 35
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 145
Number of Forecasts 93
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 326
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.794415
2.
-0.697177
3.
-0.687447
4.
-0.672138
5.
-0.668722

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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