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Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
What will be the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan as of 31 July 2022?
20 Forecasters • 26 Forecasts
Started
Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing
Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 3.8 million
1%
Between 3.8 million and 4.3 million, inclusive
42%
More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million
47%
Between 4.8 million and 5.3 million, inclusive
9%
More than 5.3 million but fewer than 5.8 million
1%
Between 5.8 million and 6.3 million, inclusive
0%
More than 6.3 million
0%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2023?
3%
Chance
28 Forecasters • 37 Forecasts
Started
Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
What will be the daily reported natural gas in storage in the EU for 31 July 2022?
16 Forecasters • 22 Forecasts
Started
Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing
Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than 650.0 TWh
0%
Between 650.0 TWh and 700.0 TWh, inclusive
1%
More than 700.0 TWh but less than 750.0 TWh
35%
Between 750.0 TWh and 800.0 TWh, inclusive
58%
More than 800.0 TWh
6%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
What will be the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury on 1 August 2022?
22 Forecasters • 32 Forecasts
Started
Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing
Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than 2.60
0%
Between 2.60 and 3.00, inclusive
21%
More than 3.00 but less than 3.40
62%
Between 3.40 and 3.80, inclusive
16%
More than 3.80 but less than 4.20
1%
4.20 or higher
0%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in December 2022?
19 Forecasters • 30 Forecasts
Started
Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 50 million
0%
Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive
0%
More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million
12%
Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive
44%
More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million
41%
Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive
3%
More than 75 million
0%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
21 Forecasters • 29 Forecasts
Started
Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than $3.00
0%
Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive
0%
More than $3.50 but less than $4.00
0%
Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive
40%
More than $4.50 but less than $5.00
39%
Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive
20%
More than $5.50 but less than $6.00
1%
Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive
0%
More than $6.50
0%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?
36 Forecasters • 57 Forecasts
Started
Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 09, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 207
0%
Between 207 and 217
1%
Between 218 and 228
39%
Between 229 and 239
48%
Between 240 and 250
12%
More than 250
0%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
What will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for "Food" in November 2022?
60 Forecasters • 150 Forecasts
Started
May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than 5.0%
0%
Between 5.0% and 7.5%, inclusive
0%
More than 7.5% but less than 10.0%
20%
Between 10.0% and 12.5%, inclusive
52%
More than 12.5% but less than 15.0%
28%
15.0% or more
0%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
At close of business on 31 December 2022, what will be the upper limit of the US federal funds target range?
51 Forecasters • 139 Forecasts
Started
May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 1.75
0%
Between 1.75 and 2.25, inclusive
2%
Higher than 2.25 but lower than 3.25
69%
Between 3.25 and 3.75, inclusive
29%
Higher than 3.75
0%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Between 20 May 2022 and 31 December 2022, will the 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China reach or exceed 100,000?
8%
Chance
38 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started
May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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