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Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
(8 months)
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Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see:
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Question
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
How many seats will the Identity & Democracy Group (ID) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?
Closing
Jun 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
23
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86
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
What percentage of the vote will the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor, or AUR) party list win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?
Closing
Jun 09, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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17
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55
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 1 July 2024, will the US, IAEA, and/or a UN agency publicly state that it believes it more likely than not that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon capable of being detonated?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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152
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584
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 1 July 2024?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
75
·
332
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
When will all military forces of the Russian Federation cease to be in the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts in Ukraine?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
139
·
640
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 1 July 2024, will the Scottish Parliament vote in the affirmative for early elections?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
43
·
128
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Between 29 September 2023 and 30 June 2024, will the UN Security Council increase the number of troops authorized in Somalia after 30 June 2024 under the mandate for the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
28
·
115
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
When will NATO and/or a NATO member state publicly accuse Republic of Serbia national military forces and/or law enforcement of either entering Kosovo without authorization or firing a weapon or weapons into Kosovo?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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70
·
262
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 1 July 2024, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of attacking a crewed, non-Ukrainian-flagged vessel in the Black Sea outside of Ukrainian and Russian territorial waters?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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118
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434
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Between 1 March 2024 and 30 June 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in Sudan due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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19
·
75
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2
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