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What will be the difference in the Earth's decadal average global surface temperature in 2091 to 2100 as compared to 1881 to 1890?

12 Forecasters • 12 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 1.00°C
33%
Between 1.00°C and 2.00°C, inclusive
27%
More than 2.00°C but less than 3.00°C
40%
Between 3.00°C and 4.00°C, inclusive
0%
More than 4.00°C but less than 5.00°C
0%
Between 5.00°C and 6.00°C, inclusive
0%
More than 6.00°C but less than 7.00°C
0%
7.00°C or more
0%
tabhuth asks:

Between 12 August 2022 and 18 February 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and/or state crime in the US?

36 Forecasters • 60 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 18, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, a federal crime only
22%
Yes, a state crime only
6%
Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime
24%
No
48%

Before 1 April 2023, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?

9%

Chance
21 Forecasters • 29 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
DippySkippy asks:

Before 8 November 2022, will American basketball player Brittney Griner leave Russia?

15%

Chance
24 Forecasters • 34 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC

When will the Council of the European Union (Council) declare a "Union alert" triggering a mandatory, EU-wide reduction in natural gas consumption?

24 Forecasters • 28 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 October 2022
8%
Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022
45%
Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023
24%
Not before 1 April 2023
23%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?

10%

Chance
27 Forecasters • 40 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?

4%

Chance
44 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?

15 Forecasters • 22 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 20 million
0%
Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive
37%
More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million
36%
Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive
25%
More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million
2%
100 million or more
0%

Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 April 2023?

28%

Chance
50 Forecasters • 68 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
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