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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?

70%

Chance
40 Forecasters • 50 Forecasts
Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?

38%

Chance
20 Forecasters • 23 Forecasts
Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Adam Grant asks:

Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?

70%

Chance
121 Forecasters • 132 Forecasts
Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing Aug 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Adam Grant asks:

For how many weeks will Adam Grant's "Think Again" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?

79 Forecasters • 87 Forecasts
Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing Jul 04, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 4
9%
Between 4 and 8
50%
Between 9 and 13
30%
Between 14 and 18
9%
More than 18
2%
Adam Grant asks:

In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?

42%

Chance
60 Forecasters • 64 Forecasts
Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist and Adam Grant ask:

How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?

64 Forecasters • 77 Forecasts
Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 8,000,000
0%
Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive
13%
More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000
42%
Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive
39%
More than 14,000,000
6%

What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?

19 Forecasters • 34 Forecasts
Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $0.50
3%
Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive
7%
More than $1.00 but less than $2.50
89%
Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive
1%
More than $5.00
0%
The Economist asks:

What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?

61 Forecasters • 79 Forecasts
Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 5.4%
9%
Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive
51%
More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%
33%
Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive
6%
More than 7.1%
1%
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